Working with DNV GL on Bayesian statistical modelling for quantitative risk analysis

Sebastian graduated from Chalmers University in Goeteborg in 2014 with a MSc after studying in Germany. His MSc thesis deals with a special type of percolation processes for different setups. During his studies, he developed especially interest in probability theory and its applications. In his spare time he enjoys playing table tennis or a good game of backgammon.

Research project title:
Bayesian statistical modelling for quantitative risk analysis

Supervisor(s):
Finn Lindgren, Evangelos Evangelou, David Worthington

Project description:
Sebastian studied extensions and innovative uses of Bayesian Networks (BNs) as a tool for Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA). QRA is especially relevant for the oil and gas industry, where analysis is usually carried out probabilistically in order to assess likelihood and impact of safety issues. A common framework to represent results from such analyses are Event Trees (ETs) which lack many properties for dynamic risk assessment. Working in collaboration with DNV GL, the focus of this project was to study how ETs can be cast into BNs in a practical way using information measures that allow for simplifications of BNs. Furthermore, particular time continuous extensions for BN modelling were considered that allow examination of time-to-event variables in more detail.